The Adventures of Little Rosie

Here it is Friday, Sept. 10.  It’s the rainy season which means we can get random showers day or night.  They usually last just long enough to close all your hatches.

Yesterday it rained almost all day long.  There were short periods of torrential downpours and a light sprinkle most of the rest of the day.  And why is this? It seems that there is a an area of low pressure forming and we are almost in the middle of it.  So we are feeling a little low in Grenada, or at least the effects of it.

This is the type thing that forms near africa and becomes a hurricane as it feeds on the warm air while crossing the Atlantic.  So instead of watching a bowling ball coming at us, this is more like a bullseye. 

A weather bullseye, in a small way

Luckily it is a rather disorganized low.  The weather people have been having trouble getting a handle on it, but they think it’s not likely to build until it passes us, so it’s just a rainy nusiance that is holding up my deck painting project. 

Raining on my parade

Of course there is still Igor out there….

I mentioned that the weather people are having trouble predicting what this low will do, so just for fun I grabbed a copy of the analysis done by Chris Parker, our weather router.  It makes you understand just how much fun it is trying to predict the weather.  It’s a bit long and detailed, but some of you might find it interesting.

“–Squall activity associated with WAVE/broad LO (LO equals an area of low pressure -Eric) in SE Caribbean (Invest 92) dissipated completely this evening.  UofWisc analysis suggests vorticity-max is just E of StVincent, near 13N-14N/60W…but vorticity is weaker than it was earlier today & less-focused.

–Forecast models have been gyrating wildly, trying to get a handle on this potential Tropical system…strong convection lifted N today along the Island chain thru StLucia & Martinique…and models were faked-out by that, and predicted a forming Tropical LO would sweep along all the Islands of the E Caribbean…from the Windward N-NNW thru Leewards, then turn WNW thru Virgins & then closely follow the GreaterAntilles WNW-ward.

–This evening, models realize the N-ward motion of strong convection today was a head-fake…and models reverted to a W or WNW motion, slowly at first, with a gradual acceleration – just as I described in this morning’s Interim Tropical.

–So…I think we’re back to where we were this morning…development of a Tropical LO is VERY unlikely thru tomorrow…but quite possible over the weekend…but, by then, any developing LO is likely to lie somewhere W of the Windwards/Leewards, generally between Venezuela & PuertoRico.

–If a Tropical LO develops, it could be a real problem for C & W Caribbean from N of 14N to the GreaterAntilles…with LO reaching W Longitude of Jamaica about Tue14 / Caymans Wed15 / Yucatan Thu16-Fri17 / GOMEX (Gulf of Mexico -Eric) thereafter.

–And, therefore, this morning’s forecast for E Caribbean remains valid…basically:

–Areas S of any developing LO expect light wind from any direction, with scattered-to-numerous squalls possibly packing wind to 20-35k in some.

–Areas N of any developing LO expect gradually-increasing NE wind clocking SE after LO moves W of your Longitude, with scattered-to-numerous squalls possibly packing wind to 25-40k).”

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